With all this craziness going on about the Coronavirus pandemic, it felt mandatory for a newbie blogger like me to approach the topic. Not to mention that I live in Montreal, the virus infection’s hotspot in Canada, stuck in a condo tower without a car. So no need to tell you that this pandemic feels absolutely real.
Considering also that my dad regularly does business in China, I have been following this closely since mid-January. Remembering Bill Gates’ 2015 TED talk on the potential next pandemic and the level of economic integration between China and the rest of the world, I knew this was going to be bad when they announced an unknown pneumonia-like illness in China.
By the end of January, I started preparing and telling my family and friends. Of course, I was crazy back then to think that a virus from China could reach Canada, but still I bought my P100 mask and have been buying extra cans and TP at every shopping run since then. This satisfied my security needs and, yes I’ll admit it, paranoia, but I still needed to feed my appetite for data on this.
As an analyst, I try to never make an opinion without having looked at data first, so I scoured the internet in search of reliable sources on the spread and seriousness of the pandemic. I have to say, I found more than my fair share. From epidemiological models looking at the rate of contagion to dynamic visualizations of the spread of the virus, it was all there. So, as everyone in my entourage is asking me constantly what is happening, I needed to make myself a quick list of reliable sources to discard the noise and get straight to the facts. So it felt natural to share it with you too.
With every piece of research, it is important to first understand what the data can and cannot be telling us.
This is especially true for COVID. With the amount of coverage there is, it is easy to fall in the traps of the media and follow the herd. If you want to distance yourself from the noise, then you need to understand how the illness works either at a high level or in detail, but at least some understanding is required.
For those looking for a quick geographic reference of the state of the global pandemic, John Hopkins is the best source. It is simple, compact and relatively accurate. For people wanting a deeper dive into the dynamics of the pandemic around the world, I highly recommend you take a look at OurWorldInData resource.
If you are interested in making your own estimates like I was, then you need to look at Tomas Pueyo’s posts and visit his sources. More regionally, journals have done an amazing job of presenting useful resources to track the virus. In the U.S. in particular, the Times has done the best job in my opinion. You can also look at the San Francisco Chronicle for cases more specific to California. You can also look at adapted versions of the ArcGis map from John Hopkins for Canada and Quebec, as well as the UK.
Now, if you have had the chance to read a bit on this already and are comfortable with the concepts of reproduction rate (R0), incubation periods and case fatality rates, then I would encourage you to go and play around with your own estimates on this pandemic calculator. If it doesn’t make you feel a little better to be able to understand how this could unfold, then it should at least peak your curiosity!
On this, I hope that everyone is enjoying this from the comfort of their couch, safely and healthily.
P.S. remember to call your grandparents!
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